The Official "2000th Post" Post.

Yes, my 2000th post. My determination to wear out my welcome has brought me to this millenial milestone. Huzzahs!

And a notable event deserves a notable beer--on me! Enjoy the fine selection:

Smoke if you got 'em.

Oh, and just looking for input. Should the heavy cavalry of my post-Change army look like Byzantine cataphracts

or Polish hussars?

About that Muslim demographic tidal wave in Europe...

...not so fast.

Steve Stirling sent me this link, which reports plummets in those levels, too:

The news that France has overtaken Ireland to boast the highest birthrate in Europe is intriguing for three different reasons.

The first is that for a Europe that is worried about too few children being born to support the fast-growing numbers of elderly retirees, it suggests that public policy can make a difference. France now pays any mother with a third child about $1,200 in child support, along with massive discounts on train and public transport and subsidized day care. These incentives seem to work.

The second development to note is that INED, France's National Institute of Demographic Studies, has done some detailed research and concluded that France's immigrant population is responsible for only 5 percent of the rise in the birthrate and that France's population would be rising anyway even without the immigrant population.

That is important in a country where the number of immigrants from traditionally Muslim countries and their French-born children and grandchildren is now reckoned to be more than 6 million from a total population of 60.7 million. The anti-immigration Front National Party has claimed the rise in births came from Muslims, who were thus on track to become an eventual majority, and this appears not to be the case.

In fact in France, like everywhere else in Europe, the birthrate among immigrant mothers drops quickly toward the local norm in less than two generations. The measure most commonly used in international statistics is the Total Fertility Rate, which seeks to measure the number of children born to the average woman in her fertile years. (The formal definition of TFR is the average number of children a woman would have during her reproductive lifetime if current age-specific fertility rates remained constant over her reproductive life.)

As Steve said, immigrants who come from places where the TFR is already below replacement aren't going to suddenly have six kids. Hasn't happened anywhere else in the world, and the TFR in most majority-Muslim countries is below replacement and falling, too.

Best Forgotten Teen Flicks of the 80s.

MSN offers its list and a better poll here.

Of their list, I saw only The Last American Virgin--and I rather liked it, including the ending. Much more realistic than most. Then again, I was an oft-bitter, dateless nerd in high school, so YMMV.

The poll is better, and I saw three of those:

Real Genius, which my Much Better Half regards as the Citizen Kane of the 80s;

Lucas; and

Three O'Clock High.

I liked the other two well enough, but the last was a classic, High Noon for the Ferris Buehler set. The opposite in resolution from TLAV, it's just one of those great nerd underdog flicks. If you haven't seen it, see it. Unjustly forgotten.

In a manner reminiscent of Jenghis Khan...

I want to see this: Mongol, the first in a trilogy about the life of Genghis Khan. If Roger Ebert gives his imprimatur, I'm willing to truck off to see it. Victor?

One of the epochal figures in human history, Genghis unleashed a typhoon upon the world. Some parts of the world have never recovered from what he wrought, and some only partially. Actually beating the Mongols in battle was something to boast about for approximately ever, and only a handful did before the 15th Century (the Egyptian Mamluks, the Russians). And their enemies were well-advised to defeat them or surrender without a fight because the alternative was a Carthaginian peace. What saved their enemies more often was the practice of recalling all of the subordinate leaders of the Great Khan to Mongolia upon the death of the Khan. That's almost certainly what saved central Europe from devastation in the 1240s.

Skunks On A Plane.

No, really.

I'm getting a movie idea...

Beer Wars.

A really good article about the recent shakeups in the brewing market, and the forces driving it.

Looks like beer drinkers are the beneficiaries, as this fact demonstrates:

Anheuser-Busch has also been revamping its Michelob line, which includes flavors such as Honey Lager, Amberbock and Marzen, an Oktoberfest-style beer. Several of Michelob's brews have been winning awards at both the Great American Beer Festival and the World Beer Cup.

If my daughters and sons can display the same kind of heroic dignity in difficult circumstances that Luke Russert did...

...then my life will have been a success.

I know a lot more about Tim Russert now from having watched his son, and all of it good.

Let's all work together and annoy Hilary into going to the Doctor.

Here is our problem patient's problem.

And to sweeten the pill, compliment her on her fine photography of Merrie Olde Englande in her summer glory.

"Lighten the ballast."

I'd buy this book in a heartbeat, if he wrote it.

Anyway, some good advice. RTWT.

I think I've mellowed over the past 3 years or so. The heresy detector is still on, but it comes with analytical settings such as "is the issue really more de gustibus?"; "how do I best handle this as a teaching moment?"; and the essential "pick your battles does not mean pick a fight--especially one you can't win." By all means, instruct--but remember your audience.

My wife's encounter with a Jehovah's Witness at a supermarket comes to mind. When the grandmotherly Witness said "God did not come in the flesh," Heather merely smiled and without a trace of snark or anger said "Yes, He did."

"Revelations" Reactions.

A nice round-up here, at the indispensible Galactica Sitrep. Including two neat panoramas and the video of the post-landing scene.

Also, a very fine analysis at Time Immortal, which offers a generous hat-tip to yours truly.

First we'll surrender. Then we'll negotiate.

Professor Kmiec has a cunning plan:

I am firmly in the camp that now sees non-legal paths as the best means of reducing abortion, but I also relish the belief (much denigrated on less thoughtful sites) that it is possible to moderate the legal implications of FOCA by reminding the advocates of choice that true choice includes choosing life and funding one side to the exclusion of the other raises the very equality and discrimination concerns at which the legislation purports to be aimed.

This is what the Freedom of Choice Act his hero has passionately sworn to sign into law will do:

Under current law, Medicaid funding for abortion is prohibited except in cases of rape, incest, or the life of the mother. Under FOCA, Medicaid funding for abortion would be required. That’s not the status quo.

Under current law, abortions are not performed in many hospitals. Under FOCA, abortionists would be able to set up shop in any hospital, and any state or federal law or regulation to the contrary would be voided. That’s not the status quo.


Under current law, states can (and many have) pass informed consent law and/or waiting periods for women seeking abortions. Under FOCA, such laws would all be voided. That’s not the status quo.

Under current law, abortions are not performed on military bases. Under FOCA, they would be. That’s not the status quo.

FOCA does enshrine the right to an abortion in statutory law, making it that much more difficult to stop abortion even if Roe is overturned. That’s bad enough. But FOCA does far more than that. It would, in one fell swoop, wipe out most of the legal gains made by the pro-life movement in the last 30 years.

The Professor sees this as an opportunity to dialogue.

Holy hopping snot.

Sales representatives, do not hire this man.

At the risk of debilitating pedantry, here's the problem with it: had we followed the "hearts 'n minds only" plan with respect to racial equality and civil rights, Senator Obama would not be the nominee of the Democratic Party. He probably wouldn't live in the Chicago neighborhood he does now. A lot of hearts and minds were just fine with Jim Crow and its de facto equivalents in 1953, in both the north and south. They remained quite happy with it until 1964-65, but they could no longer hide behind "it's the law" when court precedent and legislation turned against them.

The progress we've seen (far, far from complete, but still progress) on racial reconciliation/civil rights in this country would not have been achieved without both legal efforts (Brown v. Board of Education, the Civil Rights Act of 1964, the Voting Rights Act of 1965, Loving v. Virginia) *and* moral suasion (Little Rock, Selma, Dr. King and the brave work of black citizens seeking full citizenship) working in tandem.

Appeals to morality are essential, as is education. But both work much more effectively when the legal climate favors that struggle, as opposed to destroys it. In fact, I'm hard pressed to think of a positive cultural reformation which did not involve legal reform as well.

Disregarding history, logic, and even common sense, legal marginalization of the pro-life movement is collateral damage that Professor Kmiec and the rest of Obama's Catholic Fan Club are happy to accept. There are a lot of words to describe this irrational quietism, none of them polite. Ultimately, it amounts to a separate peace with the culture of death.

Press Secretary Kmiec, you are hired. Congratulations.

[H/t to Jay for the Kmiec comment find.]