Showing posts with label Spanners for the Hype Machine. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Spanners for the Hype Machine. Show all posts

Wednesday, June 17, 2020

It's OK to admit failure. Sometimes it's a necessity.

And now for something completely-different:
 
It was only sixteen months ago--but it seems like a lifetime, doesn't it?

Remember the newsworthy joint declaration from the pontiff and the Sunni head of the Al Azhar University in Cairo? That bit about the Almighty willing religious diversity the same way He willed us to be male and female?

In defending that heretofore-unrevealed spin on Catholic teaching, the pontiff was adamant: "From the Catholic point of view, the document does not pull away one millimeter from Vatican II."

Interpreting what Vatican II said or what the footnotes supposedly help it say is an exercise reminiscent of late-stage scholasticism: a lot of ink spilled over puzzling/ambiguous minutiae to no benefit at all. Except for the publishing prospects or feuds of a ring of clerics or clericalized-laity who have the parchment license to use the cant of the initiated.

No, for the purposes here, the important thing is that, once again, Vatican II is invoked. In my snarkier moments I call it "Vatican Too," because like "too," the council is inserted into an embarrassing number of church contexts.

No ecumenical council insists upon itself quite like the 21st.

But why do we let our thinking be dominated by a failed enterprise?


FAILED ENTERPRISE?!

How can you say any such thing about an ecumenical council of the Catholic Church?

Well, why don't we do a couple of things before we flee to our fainting couches? First, let's consider the stated intent of that council.

Back in 1963 Pope Paul VI identified the goals of the Second Vatican Council as follows:
  
"You know the purpose of this council, which has more participants than any other: As it was expressed by our illustrious predecessor [Pope John XXIII], the Church must appear in its perennial vigor, the instrument of salvation for all; to her Our Lord Jesus Christ has entrusted the deposit of the Faith, to be guarded faithfully and in an apt and convenient way. This energetic vigor of the Church, which illuminates, attracts, moves souls, can take new strength from the council, which meets at the tomb of St. Peter.”

And how has that worked out for us, three generations later? The Church is dead in Western Europe, moribund in Latin America, withering or barely holding its own in Asia and well on the way to irrelevance in North America.

Only sub-Saharan Africa is a place of consistent growth, but that can hardly be taken for granted.

Thus, according the stated goals as set forth by Paul VI, one of the presiding popes of that council, Vatican II has failed. 

Some of you are mentally recoiling in horror right now (or haven't stopped)--but why? 

The second thing you have to remember is that the long history of the Church tells you you should not be freaked out. A searching look back across the centuries demonstrates that a failed ecumenical council is Just One of Those Things

Councils have failed before and will fail in the future. Is anyone still talking about the Spirit of Vienne, or asking about Lateran IV?

I hear the sputtering "Butbutbut--it's *you* who aren't taking the long view. Everyone knows it takes a century for a council to take effect!!!”


And where is that written? That’s just one of the popular apologetics slogans, right alongside the no True Scotsman-y "hasn't been implemented properly," "it's not in the actual documents" and "bad translation." It's spin--pure ahistorical, corporate spin.
And it’s especially laughable if you peruse Church history. Lateran V closed in 1517, but by 1545 it had been justly forgotten after half of Europe had become Protestant. Certainly, there was no one in the Catholic world dumb enough to suggest that Lateran V just needed some more time to leaven the dough of faith, or some similar happy metaphor defending the downward trajectory.

Unfortunately for our time, the one thing that unites the entire leadership of the Church, regardless of label, is that Vatican II Was Just Fine, no matter what the statistics say about the disintegration of Catholic observance across three continents.

So instead of accepting the fact that VToo was, by virtue of its pastoral mindset and focus on the moment, reaching out to the world of the 1960s, it had a built-in sell-by date...it is turned into a platonic Form. It is a super-council, "a language event" unconstrained by time or place, a totally unique episode in the Church untethered from her past.

While the “hermeneutic of continuity” scholastics would argue against the last clause, it really has been treated like that, even by the 'conservative' popes. Both of whom unswervingly took the Council as the unalterable touchstone and functional super-event in one way or another. And they agreed that, of course, “these things take time.”
The only difference with the current pontiff is that he takes the gestalt of the council to its logical end. He’s a true believer in singing a new church and has not the slightest qualms. Forward, forward, always forward! The only problems he sees in the Church are with those who object—rigidly, of course—to another half-century of giddy autodemolition praised as a fruit of the spirit.

When you consider the undeniable ambiguity of the conciliar documents, the wholesale re-constitution of the liturgy which followed and the declarations of independence from the magisterium which were only occasionally and half-heartedly reined in, the much-derided “spirit of the council” is usually the council itself on laughing gas.

And the fact that 'conservatives' and 'liberals' alike insist on using "*the* council" as *the* polestar in the face of disintegration….well, that makes Vatican II the wordiest suicide note in history.

Vatican II spoke to the 'New Frontier' era, albeit dishonestly in spots (e.g., no mention of communism). And for that, it probably did a decent-enough job. But the problem is that the New Frontier Man died in 1968, both his children are divorced, none of his grandchildren go to church and the lot of them are happy with the straitjacket of bourgeois Western leftism so long as their streaming services and WiFi are up.

Fast forward from 1963 to 2020: The perennial vigor of the Church has almost entirely dissipated. The deposit of the Faith, far from being faithfully guarded, is presented as a grab-bag of implicit novelties, the latest of which now includes God willing other religions. Far from illuminating and attracting souls, the Church’s tired, debilitated voice suggests that people are just as well off looking elsewhere for their own truths. 

If that’s not failure, I'd hate to see what actual failure looks like.

It is past time to move on. Honesty requires no less.

Monday, September 28, 2015

China's Economic Woes.

A friend of mine says that China's best days are right now: a host of demographic and related issues are going to hobble the Middle Kingdom over the medium to long term.

And perhaps the first signs of it are occurring right now: according to this long but very interesting piece, the People's Republic has spent and Marxed itself into one huge mess. Here's just a small (no, really!) helping, explaining China's currency peg trap.

Why does China insist on continuing its currency peg? The direct answer is that maintaining capital controls requires maintaining the peg, if China is to have control over its monetary policy. Why does China insist on continuing capital controls? This again stems from the weakness of the Chinese system.

China’s long-term interest lies in abandoning the capital controls outright. This would eventually stabilize the RMB, and make Chinese assets more valuable due to a liquidity premium (investors are more likely to enter if they are not prohibited from exit). In the near-term, however, abandoning capital controls would cause a sudden, massive flight of capital out of China. That would surely prick the property bubble, and the ensuing instability would threaten the Communist Party.

Again, SocGen’s Wei Yao: “Not letting the currency go requires significant FX intervention that will not prevent ongoing capital outflows but which will result in tightening domestic liquidity conditions; but letting the currency go risks more immense capital outflow pressures in the immediate short term, external debt defaults and possibly further domestic investment deceleration.”
Another factor in the continuation of capital controls and the currency peg must be the dollar-denominated debt of many Chinese firms. Pundits have pointed out that Chinese foreign-currency debt is nothing compared to the degree of dollar debt that precipitated the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis.

True, but many Chinese issuers of dollar bonds are firms in the all important real-estate sector. Nomura, a bank, estimates external liabilities amount to $1.135 trillion, $405 billion of which is bond issuance, the rest being international bank loans. Mingtiandi, a Chinese real-estate intelligence firm, estimates that over a third of developer debt is not in RMB. Jeffries and JP Morgan put total developer debt exposed to the dollar even higher, at 40 percent.

The devaluation was in small part a warning to property-sector issuers of dollar debt who have not hedged against RMB depreciation.
As such, the recent RMB devaluation should be thought of in two ways. It was not a sop to exporters, nor was it an attempt to allow market forces to more greatly sway the RMB. Rather, the devaluation was in small part a warning to property-sector issuers of dollar debt who have not hedged against RMB depreciation, and was in large part due to the PBOC’s peg pulling too much RMB out of the economy. There will be more devaluation.

But keeping the peg in place and allowing what looks to the market like knee-jerk devaluations only makes investors place more bets on a falling RMB, which further goads capital flight. Citigroup analysts write that, “After [the] recent FX regime shift, it’s also not realistic to assume the renminbi should stabilize after [a] mere 3 per cent depreciation.” SocGen projects a further 6.2 percent depreciation by the end of the year. In other words, unless the PBOC abandons the currency peg altogether, thus abandoning capital controls, it is backed into a corner.

Instead of the quick knock on the head that liberalizing capital controls would bring, along with allowing the RMB to float, China is opting for a slow and excruciating monetary strangulation. When the property bubble does burst, Chinese consumer spending will be radically reduced in a reverse wealth effect as savings are wiped out. In the words of hedge fund manager James Chanos, China is on a “treadmill to hell” because of the “heroin of property development.”

New digs for ponderings about Levantine Christianity.

   The interior of Saint Paul Melkite Greek Catholic Church, Harissa, Lebanon. I have decided to set up a Substack exploring Eastern Christi...